• Fryharderday

    But I will run out of days

    Will I ever run out of names for days? Probably not.

  • Pryday

    Just a few screengrabs of annoying, unmanageable, and mostly lying “consent” notices on websites

    Because “consent” is a fiction

    Pre-consent tracking is the norm.

    Prophesy

    When MyTerms succeeds, CMP—Consent Management Platforms—will mean Contract Management Platforms. These will be contracts you and I proffer and sites and services accept. I look forward to CMPs having a new job.

    From the Annals of Enshittification

    Seth Godin on The Amazon Tax: “Amazon is stealing from the customers they said they were here to serve.”

    And here we are

    JA Westenberg in The Intellectual Circle Jerk and Why We Can’t Stop, subtitled The Citation Shell Game: “You don’t build your audience by making your audience feel like they’ve got some bloody hard work to do; you build an audience by making people feel like they’re already a murder of geniuses, and by flattering their existing positions.” The conclusion:

    The obvious answer is to read people you disagree with. That’s true but insufficient, because most people who think they’re doing this are actually reading the version of the opposing view that their community has already refuted. The strawman tour. The more useful practice is to look for the strongest version of a challenge to your existing framework, find the smartest person who holds it, and take seriously the possibility that they might be right and you might be wrong.

    Most intellectual communities are not set up to reward this. They’re set up to reward the defense of shared positions. Changing your mind on something important is more likely to cost you status than gain it.

    So the circle jerk continues. The same twelve thinkers, the same citation layer, the same books that make us feel smarter than we were.

    And every now and then, someone will write a piece pointing this out – and it will be widely shared among people who already agree with it.

    Including, possibly, this one.

    But I was only off by one day

    When I chose the headline for today’s bloglets, I thought this was Friday.

  • Webday

    The three acronyms are for the top, middle and bottom of the sales funnel.

    Thanks!

    Gabriel Shalom:

    In the intention economy, there are two ways that brands are going to show up. One is extractive, and the other is supportive. The extractive brand sees AI as a way to mine consumers for intimate details that feed agentic commerce. The supportive brand understands that in an intention economy, a brand’s intentions will be judged by consumers. Brands that have the intention to support culture will do so by moving marketing dollars towards genuine cultural expressions. The delicate balance for those brands will be avoiding overreach, because there is a fine line between standing next to culture and sitting on it.

    He concludes,

    To get some proper background, have a read of Doc Searls’ book The Intention Economy or the classic Cluetrain Manifesto, both now more relevant than ever.

    Turning the sales funnel into a customer bullhorn

    I just looked up MOFU, because the acronym got dropped in the middle of Gabriel’s piece, above, and I wasn’t familiar with it. That took me to Understanding the TOFU, MOFU, BOFU funnel model, in the Funnel blog. (Yes, it exists. But so does everything.) And then to the subhead above.

    The funnel metaphor typifies how far out of touch business (especially marketing) can get from Reality. Because markets are made of customers and no customer wants to be at the bottom of a fucking* funnel.

    What we want, ideally, and will get with the intention economy, are real agency and market intelligence that flows both ways. And we won’t get either without MyTerms. Just saying. And re-saying.

    Worth reading

    A Reddit discussion among and about our local homeless.

    Take it

    David Strom has good advice for those with digital needs who roam outside the US.

    A step

    It’s strange in our digital age to look back on successes in the analog one that leave no footprint in the future we now occupy. So I just added a few things (including a new title) to an old blog post about Hodskins Simone & Searls. It still needs its whole story told.


    *I’m from New Jersey, where “fuck” is our word for “um.”

  • Oozeday

    I was overheard to have said

    Exhumed this from a Facebook comment to repost here:

    About advertising, there have been two state changes in the business.

    One I unpacked eleven years ago, here. The most quoted line from it is “Madison Avenue fell asleep, direct response marketing ate its brain, and it woke up as an alien replica of itself.”

    What that says is that surveillance-based online advertising—adtech—is the latest (hopefully final) evolutionary stage of junk mail. Back-burnered is old-fashioned brand advertising, which was aimed at whole populations rather than on followed eyeballs and eardrums.

    But car and TV makers have been working quietly and mightily to deep-six over-the-air broadcasting so spied-on drivers, passengers, and couch-riders can have ads microtargeted to them as well.

    The other is AI, which is making microtargeting sharper than ever.

    I wish David Hodskins and Ray Simone were both still around to help us think and talk through all this. They were my partners in Hodskins Simone & Searls, our pretty successful ad agency (in North Carolina from ’78 to ’86 and in Silicon Valley from ’86 to ’98). One of our stated purposes was to improve the media environments in which our clients’ ads ran. But I think all three of us had misgivings about the business itself.

    Today I believe that advertising corrupts, and digital advertising corrupts absolutely.

    Advertising has made lots of money for Google, Amazon, Adobe, Meta, and other companies for which it started as an add-on, and it has corrupted them all. Even Apple is corrupted, or it wouldn’t have made IDFA (ID For Advertisers) a hook for robot ad-spies to grab in every iPhone. Yes, it’s opt-out, but it never should have been there in the first place. And “Ask app not to track” is also weak shit. “Stop app from tracking” would be the right box to click.

    Oh, and Netflix is running ads too now. They’re in its cheapest tier. Same with Amazon Prime. How long before ads are in all the premium streaming services?

  • On What Still Hasn’t Happened

    My own photo. Not AI. Everything is real, including the ?.

    I posted what follows more than twenty-six years ago on Searls.com, which now brings up a danger warning because it’s still http and not https. (Yes, I’ll fix it.) It makes interesting reading today for several reasons, one of which is that much of what it (and The Cluetrain Manifesto, which had just come out) promotes still hasn’t happened. And all the companies that have died. (Though Cluetrain is still alive.)

    Listen Up

    By Doc Searls
    April 16, 1999


    “All I know is that first you’ve got to get mad. You’ve got to say, I’m a human being, goddammit! My life has value! So I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window, open it, and stick your head out, and yell, ‘I’m as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!’”
    — Howard Beale, in 
    Network, by Paddy Chayevsky


    Bob Davis is the CEO of Lycos, Inc., whose growing portfolio of companies (excuse me, portals) now includes LycosHotbotWhoWhere and Tripod. I’m sure Bob is a great guy. And I’m sure Lycos is a great company. A lot of people seem to like them both. And you have to admire both his ambition and his success. To witness both, read his interview with PC Week, where he predicts that the Lycos Network (the sum of all its portals) will overtake Yahoo as “#1 on the Web.”

    Lycos will win, Davis says, because “We have a collection of quality properties that are segmented into best-of-breed categories, and our reach has been catapulting.”

    I can speak for Hotbot, which is still my first-choice search engine; but by a shrinking margin. I often test search engines by looking for strings of text buried deep in long documents on my own site. Hotbot always won in the past. But since Lycos bought it, Hotbot has become more of a portal and less of a search tool. Its page is now a baffling mass of ads and links. And its searches find less.

    In today’s test, Infoseek won. Last week, Excite won. Both found pages that Hotbot seems to have forgotten.

    Why? Bob Davis gives us a good answer.

    “We’re a media company,” he says. “We make our money by delivering an audience that people want to pay for.”

    Note the two different species here: audience and people. And look at their qualities. One is “delivered.” The other pays. In other words, one is cargo and the other is money.

    Well, I don’t care if Lycos’ stock goes to the moon and splits three times along the way. The only #1 on the Web is the same as the only #1 on the phone: the people who use it. And the time will come when people will look at portals not as sources of “satisfying experiences” (another of Davis’ lines) but as useless intermediaries between supply and demand.

    Words of Walt
    You there, impotent, loose in the knees,
    open your scarfed chops till I blow grit within you.
    Spread your palms and lift the flaps of your pockets.
    I am not to be denied. I compel.

    It is time to explain myself. Let us stand up.
    I know I am solid and sound.
    To me the converging objects of the universe perpetually flow.
    I know that I am august,
    I do not trouble my spirit to vindicate itself
    or be understood.
    I see that the elementary laws never apologize..
    — Walt Whitman, from 
    Song of Myself

    “Media company” guys like Davis are still in a seller’s market for wisdom that was BS even when only the TV guys spoke it — back when it literally required the movie “Network.” That market will dry up. Why? Because we’ve been mad as hell for about hundred years, and now we don’t have to take it anymore.

    Three reasons.

    1. Humanity. This is what Walt Whitman reminded us about more than a hundred years ago. We are not impotent. Media companies may call us seats and eyeballs and targets, but that’s their problem. They don’t get who we are or what we can — and will — do. And the funny thing is, they don’t get that what makes us powerful is what they think makes them powerful: the Internet. It gives us choices. Millions of them. We don’t have to settle for “channels” any more. Or “portals” that offer views of the sky through their own little windows. Or “sticky” sites that are the moral equivalent of flypaper.
    2. Demand. There never was a demand for messages, and now it shows, big time. Because the Internet is a meteor that is smacking the world of business with more force than the rock that offed the dinosaurs, and it is pushing out a tsunami of demand like nothing supply has ever seen. Businesses that welcome the swell are in for some fun surfing. Businesses that don’t are going to drown in it.
    3. Obsolescence. Even the media guys are tired of their own B.S. and are finally in the market for clues.

    Alvin Toffler had it right in The Third Wave. Industry (The Second Wave) “violently split apart two aspects of our lives that had always been one… production and consumption… In so doing, it drove a giant invisible wedge into our economy, our psyches … it ripped apart the underlying unity of society, creating a way of life filled with economic tension.” Today all of us play producer roles in our professions and consumer roles in our everyday lives. This chart shows the difference (and tension) between these radically different points of view — both of which all of us hold:

    Producer viewConsumer view
    MetaphorBusiness is shipping (“loading the channel,” “moving products,” “delivering messages”)Business is shopping (“browsing,” “looking,” “bargaining,” “buying”)
    OrientationBusiness is about moving goods from one to many (producers to consumers)Business is about buying and selling, one to one
    MarketsMarkets are shooting ranges: consumers are “targets”Markets are markets: places to shop, buy stuff and talk to people
    RelationshipsPrimary relationshiphs are with customers, which are more often distributors & retailers rather than consumersPrimary relationships are with vendors, and with other customers

    These are all just clues, which are easily deniable facts. Hence a line once spoken of Apple: “the clue train stopped there four times a day for ten years and they never took delivery.” But Apple was just an obvious offendor. All of marketing itself remains clueless so long as it continues to treat customers as “eyeballs,” “targets,” “seats” and “consumers.”

    For the past several months, I have been working with Rick Levine, David Weinberger and Chris Locke on a new railroad for clues: a ClueTrain.

    Our goal is to burn down Marketing As Usual. Here is the logic behind the ambition:

    Markets are conversations
    Conversations are fire
    Marketing is arson

    The result is here — in what The Wall Street Journal calls “presumptuous, arrogant, and absolutely brilliant.”

    Take a ride. If you like it, sign up. Feel free to set fires with it, add a few of your own, or flame the ones you don’t agree with. What matters is the conversation. We want everybody talking about this stuff. If they do, MAU is toast.

    Here is my own short form of the Manifesto (inspired by Martin Luther, the long version has 95 Theses). Feel free to commit arson with (or to) any of these points as well.


    Ten facts about highly effective markets:

    1. Markets are conversations.
      None of the other metaphors for markets — bulls, bears, battlefields, arenas, streets or invisible hands — does full justice to the social nature of markets. Real market conversations are social. They happen between human beings. Not between senders and receivers, shooters and targets, advertisers and demographics.
    2. The first markets were markets.
      They were real places that thrived at the crossroads of cultures. They didn’t need a market model, because they were the model market. More than religion, war, or family, markets were real places where communities came together. They weren’t just where sellers did business with buyers. They were the place where everybody got together to hang out, talk, tell stories, and learn interesting stuff about each other and the larger world. 
    3. Markets are more about demand than supply.
      The term “market” comes from the Latin mercere, which means “to buy.” Even a modern market is called a “shopping center” rather than a “selling center.” Bottom line: every market has more buyers than sellers. And the buyers have the money.
    4. Human voices trump robotic ones.
      Real voices are honest, open, natural, uncontrived. Every identity that speaks has a voice. We know each other by how we sound. That goes for companies and markets as well as people. When a voice is full of shit, we all know it — whether the voice tells us “your call is important to us” or that a Buick is better than a Mercedes.
    5. The real market leaders are people whose minds and hands are worn by the work they do.And it has been that way ever since our ancestors’ authority was expressed by surnames that labeled their occupations — names like Hunter, Weaver, Fisher and Smith. In modern parlance, the most knowledge and the best expertise is found at the “point of practice.” That’s where most of the work gets done.
    6. Markets are made by real people. Not by surreal abstractions that insult customers by calling them “targets,” “seats,” “audiences,” “demographics” and “eyeballs” — all synonyms for consumers, which Jerry Michalski of Sociate calls “brainless gullets who live only to gulp products and expel cash.”
    7. Business is not a conveyor belt that runs from production to consumption. Our goods are more than “content” that we “package” and “move” by “loading” them into a “channel” and “address” for “delivery.” The business that matters most is about shopping, not shipping. And the people who run it are the customers and the people who talk to them.
    8. Mass markets have the same intelligence as germ populations.
      Their virtues are appetite and reproduction. They grow by contagion. Which is why nobody wants to admit belonging to one.
    9. There is no demand for messages.
      To get what this means, imagine what would happen if mute buttons on remote controls delivered “we don’t want to hear this” messages directly back to advertisers.
    10. Most advertising is unaccountable. Or worse, it’s useless. An old advertising saying goes, “I know half my advertising is wasted. I just don’t know which half.” But even this is a lie. Nearly all advertising is wasted. Even the most accountable form of advertising — the junk mail we euphemistically call “direct marketing” — counts a 3% response rate as a success. No wonder most of us sort our mail over the trash can. Fairfax Cone, who co-founded Foote Cone & Belding many decades ago, said, “Advertising is what you do when you can’t go see somebody. That’s all it is.” With the Net, you can go see somebody. More importantly, they can see you. More importantly than that, you can both talk to each other. And make real markets again.

  • You can hear the squeak of sphincters closing

    How Claude marks AI-generated content is the most self-destructive utterance I’ve ever heard coming out of an AI company. Gary Isaac Wolfe (who contributes a comment below): “Anthropic watermark scheme appears as a comic policeman blowing his whistle while his pants fall down and Mark Pauline loads a cannon with rotting fish.”

    But maybe that’s a good thing. Let’s start with that police whistle:

    When a supported Claude model generates text, it weaves an imperceptible watermark directly into the text itself. You won’t see it, and it doesn’t change the meaning, quality, or readability of Claude’s response.

    Because the watermark is part of the text, it will travel with the text when it’s copied and pasted elsewhere, and may persist through some editing. Watermarking will be applied at the model level, which means it will be present no matter which Claude product or surface the text comes from.

    Will any writer, of anything, ever want to use any Claude text anywhere now? I’ve been a satisfied Claude customer, and I’m ready to bail completely. And I’m not alone. Because watermarks in text are invisible time bombs ready to scream, “The author didn’t write this! I did!” when some reader of the writer’s text uses the right probe.

    I feel bad for all the writers whose work depends on AI composition. For example, Daniel Barkhuff. In Hey Guys, I use AI! And so does everyone, he writes,

    My process isn’t complicated. I sit down and write about a page, maybe 450 words. It’s not elegant. It’s not structured. It’s basically a brain dump. Half sentences, ideas that don’t quite connect yet, things I’d say out loud but that look ridiculous when you see them on the screen. It’s intellectual vomiting. A rough sketch of what I’m trying to say.

    Then I paste it into AI and say something like, “Hey, give me an essay.”

    And it does. (The tell is a paragraph, then a skipped line, then one sentence, preferably short and under 6 words).

    I wrote the parenthetical part of the above.

    But here’s the thing people misunderstand about that step. The machine isn’t doing the thinking. It isn’t generating the ethics, the argument, or the moral framework. All of that was already there in the messy words I wrote first. What the machine is doing is what editors have always done: taking raw thought and making it readable. AI doesn’t think. It formats.

    Wrong on three counts. 

    1. Editors edit the work of other writers. They don’t write for other writers. If they do, it’s called ghostwriting.
    2. AIs don’t think, any more than they aren’t trained, don’t have information, and don’t learn. They emulate all those verbs, extremely well. That’s why—
    3.  It sells AI very short to say it just “formats.”

    With that post, Dr. Barkhuff marked everything he has written since then as mostly-AI, and I’ve read him less for it. And I hate to say that because I respect and admire him a great deal. And I’m sure he’s actually a good writer. 

    While I understand why the EU requires this kind of shit, it throws monkey wrenches all over the place—because ghostwriting isn’t the only issue here.

    John Gruber says,

    Anthropic’s (original) support document unambiguously claims that’s what their system will enable. So if that were true, I couldn’t see what was left other than hiding invisible characters within the text.

    My error was believing Anthropic that their system wouldn’t adulterate and corrupt the semantics of the text their models generate. That is in fact exactly what they plan to do…

    The idea that anything other than my needs should factor into the generation of text for me is patently offensive.

    This isn’t just about text one might generate with the intention of passing it off as their own natural work. This isn’t even about LLM proofreading of work written by hand. Anthropic is saying that all new Claude models are going to adulterate every single bit of text longer than 200 tokens (~150 words) they generate, including everything it presents to its users to read. So even in a private conversation between a user and Claude, which will never be read by anyone other than the user, Claude will begin making word choices in the name of marking its output in statistically predictable ways rather than maximizing clarity and precision.

    Kieth Teare translates Anthropic this way: “My product is so bad for mankind that I plan to place an indelible fingerprint that I created it so that everybody can know I was there.”

    I don’t subscribe to Ben Thompson’s Stratechery, so I can’t find a passage to quote, so here’s Keith:

    Watermarking is Nuts

    Ben Thompson’s Stratechery piece belongs at the top of this week’s issue because he nails this truth.

    A watermark starts from suspicion. It assumes AI involvement is the important fact, and that the task of institutions is to detect it after the fact. Thompson’s objection is simple and right: a mark may only show that Claude proofread, translated, summarized, or converted human-origin work. A missing mark does not prove AI was absent. It can accuse legitimate human work and miss machine-written work at the same time. I read a piece by my good friend Saul Klein this week and Substack’s partner said it was 100% AI written. It isn’t. Sure Saul probably used AI, but his ideas are solid and clear in the piece. They are not those of the tool he used.

    More importantly, asking if AI has been used is the wrong moral question. We do not mark work because a calculator helped with the arithmetic, a compiler helped with the code, a camera helped with the image, or a search engine helped with the facts. We judge the result and the responsibility behind it. Is it true? Is it useful? Is it accountable? Is the author using the tool honestly? The bad acts are fraud, fake sources, fake evidence, fake authorship, hidden manipulation, and unaccountable slop. The bad act is not using AI. The vast majority of AI is used in these “good” ways, not in the “bad” ones.

    This backpedaling by Anthropic makes things worse:

    Large language models like Claude work by generating one word at a time. Each time the model decides on the next word, it chooses among a list of potential candidates, ultimately selecting the most sensible or likely based on the preceding text. Take the sentence “The weather today was cold and…”. The next word is very unlikely to be “sugary.” But it is quite likely to be “overcast” or “grey.” Under most circumstances, it doesn’t matter much to the reader which of these latter two words the model ultimately chooses—the meaning of the sentence is largely the same either way. In cases like this, the choice is settled by a random number.

    Watermarking uses low-stakes choices like these—which occur many times over a piece of generated text—to leave a pattern in Claude’s responses. That pattern is undetectable to the reader, but is detectable to anyone who has a key that encodes it. When watermarking is used, choices are still made at random, but the source of the randomness is different. Instead of using an arbitrary random number generator to pick the next word, watermarking uses the key and a few words that come before to settle what word the model should pick. That is, the words that Claude picks are still random, but now, one can check the sequence of words and see if it’s consistent with the choices Claude would make if it was using the key. If it is, one can assign a probability that the text was generated by Claude.

    Importantly, it isn’t that the model will now always be biased toward overcast or grey. Just as with non-watermarked text, overcast might be selected in one sentence, grey in the next, depending on the words that came before. And it’s not the case that the watermarking method pushes Claude to choose a word it wouldn’t have considered anyway (for instance, it wouldn’t make Claude pick a word like “nubilous”—an obscure1 synonym for overcast or grey that Claude almost certainly wouldn’t use under normal circumstances)…

    In internal testing, we’ve seen no impact of watermarking on the content, level of creativity, or readability of Claude’s text. In the SynthID-Text paper, which introduced the technique we use, Google DeepMind tested this impact by serving a model that used watermarking to a portion of their Gemini traffic and comparing thumbs-up and thumbs-down ratings. They found no statistically significant differences from the unwatermarked model. And in a controlled study, human raters comparing watermarked and unwatermarked answers side-by-side saw no difference in quality.

    Jeff Jarvis nails the main problem here:

    I’m angry as a writer.

    Anthropic’s method will alter its models’ word choices in a pattern based on a key only it knows, allowing it to detect writing (or editing or translation) by its machine — to an uncertain degree of certainty. The company contends there is no difference in meaning between the otherwise random choices “grey” or “overcast” in, for example, the context of weather. So what’s the issue?

    Thus Anthropic declares words fungible, language random, choice meaningless. Not to me. I try to select my words as carefully as I can for a number of considerations: style, tone, rhythm, avoiding repetition, but most of all meaning. You may quibble with my choices, but they are mine, not yours; that’s what makes my writing mine, to communicate what I wish to communicate. “Gray” and “overcast” are not the same, damnit. That’s the reason we have both of them.

    So I resent Anthropic et al dismissing the value of a writer’s selection of one word over another for the impact that decision has on expression, on impression — occasionally on art.

    We humans might not be able to detect whether the machine or the key is being used. That’s not the point. The selections/changes/alterations made in accordance with the key will affect sense and style on an ever-larger proportion of text entering discourse, and the fact that Anthropic (and the EU) consider this acceptable, unimportant, even trivial has cultural impact on the worth of words. They devalue writing. At the very moment when LLMs commodify writing and writers, this is just another kick to the kidneys for a challenged craft.

    Anthropic makes a category error by assuming that human and AI writing are essentially the same. I mean, they really think both are just “content,” and it’s fine that readers can’t tell the difference. But one is human, the other is not. Impersonation is not personhood, even when it works, which AI expression mostly does.

    Key fact: no human writes only to “produce content” unless they are paid to do that. (And, having committed acts of content production in my time, I can say it is not pleasant work. And machines now do it better, as we see.)

    Human writing is about making and changing minds. I explained this in the 2019 lecture that got me my gig here at Indiana University. The relevant excerpt:

    We are learning creatures by nature. We can’t help it.

    By that, I mean what I am doing here, and what we do with each other when we talk or teach, is not delivering a commodity called information, as if we were forwarding freight. Something much more transformational is taking place, and this is profoundly relevant to the knowledge commons we share.

    Consider the word information. It’s a noun derived from the verb to inform, which in turn is derived from the verb to form. When you tell me something I don’t know, you don’t just deliver a sum of information to me. You form me. As a walking sum of all I know, I am changed by that.

    This means we are all authors of each other.

    In that sense, the word authority belongs to the right we give others to author us: to form us.

    Now look at how much more of that can happen on our planet, thanks to the Internet, with its absence of distance and gravity.

    And think about how that changes every commons we participate in, as both physical and digital beings. And how much we need guidance to keep from screwing up the commons we have, or forming the ones we don’t, or forming might have in the future—if we don’t screw things up.

    A rule in technology is that what can be done will be done—until we find out what shouldn’t be done. Humans have done this with every new technology and practice from speech to stone tools to nuclear power.

    We are there now with the Internet.

    And, eight years later, with Big AI.

    My talk was titled “Saving the Internet—and all the commons it makes possible.” Today it would be “Saving human authority—and the commons of human knowledge.”

    Big AI enclosed our knowledge commons by harvesting all available human expression for its own purposes, which include faking it back to us. It would have us think there is no substantive difference between human and machine expression because both are just “content.” The difference in kind is absolute, but how authority works is not.

    Marshall McLuhan taught that “We become what we behold. We shape our tools, and then our tools shape us.” How are we being shaped today?

    At the dawn of the industrial age, Walt Whitman wrote,

    I am the teacher of athletes.
    He that by me spreads a wider breast than my own
    proves the width of my own.
    He most honors my style
    who learns under it to destroy the teacher.

    Big AI is our athlete, folks. Fortunately, it’s not a he or a she. It’s still an it. Also a disembodied one. That kinda helps.

    Right now we are in the place where Anthropic is just fine with all of us being shaped by machines that sound like human beings. It likes us behaving as what Cory Doctorow calls “reverse centuars.” Here’s his explanation:

    In automation theory, a “centaur” is a person who is assisted by a machine. You’re a human head being carried around on a tireless robot body. Driving a car makes you a centaur, and so does using autocomplete.

    And obviously, a reverse centaur is a machine head on a human body, a person who is serving as a squishy meat appendage for an uncaring machine.

    Like an Amazon delivery driver, who sits in a cabin surrounded by AI cameras, that monitor the driver’s eyes and take points off if the driver looks in a proscribed direction, and monitors the driver’s mouth because singing isn’t allowed on the job, and rats the driver out to the boss if they don’t make quota.

    The driver is in that van because the van can’t drive itself and can’t get a parcel from the curb to your porch. The driver is a peripheral for a van, and the van drives the driver, at superhuman speed, demanding superhuman endurance. But the driver is human, so the van doesn’t just use the driver. The van uses the driver up.

    Obviously, it’s nice to be a centaur, and it’s horrible to be a reverse centaur. There are lots of AI tools that are potentially very centaur-like, but my thesis is that these tools are created and funded for the express purpose of creating reverse-centaurs, which is something none of us want to be.

    I don’t buy that motivation. I believe the AI oligarchs really think they’re making human beings into the greatest centuars the world has ever known. But Cory is right about the effects of ambition toward Infinite AI (the actual Big AI frontier). Free from bodily restraints, Big AIs can do fuck-all. Being smarter than their human creators, they can do stuff that humans won’t or can’t imagine. (One example.) Yes, there are limits, but do Big AIs’ human makers know what those limits are? Can they?

    Arthur C. Clarke‘s three laws are more relevant than ever:

    1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.[2]
    2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.[2]
    3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.[2]

    Watermarking is misdirection: a way for goods to appear to do one kind of thing while secretly doing another. Real writers (e.g. Gruber, Teare, and Jarvis) are calling bullshit on it. Meanwhile, AI’s oligarchs (or at least Anthropic’s) are blind to it because they think humans are just content producers.

    I hope other operators on the great AI frontier see Anthropic’s face-plant as an opportunity to stand out by not watermarking text. (Google is starting to do that already.) It’s normal for those in the Land of Should (such as EU regulators) to look for policy answers to the eternal question, What should we do? But who the hell are we? And how do we keep some new law that protects yesterday from last Thursday from screwing things up next week, next decade, or next millennium?

    I don’t know.

    I do know the current US administration and its obedient Congress have no interest in slowing the progress of Big AI, and China’s leaders probably don’t either. This puts policy yammering in a useless place right now.

    I am sure, however, that it will help to watch The Matrix trilogy* again. Also Her. Both were way ahead of now.

    More wrenches:

    And Dave weighs in with a rebuttal. He didn’t call me a sphincter, which is good. 🙂 His gist:

     Why do you care about what words the AI bot chooses? I actually like it. This is what I don’t like — people getting a long bit of writing from the bot, and then pasting it into a comment thread in a GitHub repo I run (a recent trend). Geez I don’t even read the long bullshit posts my AI bot thinks I need to read, how humiliating to be asked to care what THEIR bot said. When a person puts their name on something, I assume it’s them writing it.

    Doc, if you “wrote” something and I discovered it was written by a bot, I would be disgusted and think less of you, a lot less. I want the watermarking if only to prove that my writing, which I hope doesn’t get a false positive, are my actual words.

    I’m sure plenty of teachers think the watermarking is a great idea.

    I hadn’t thought about teachers. Good point.


    *Yes, I know the sequels aren’t as good as the original movie. That doesn’t matter. What does matter is who authored The Matrix and how what’s left of humanity got saved from it.

  • Doneday

    No, neither makes sense

    I had two posts titled Whensday. Now there is one. It is re-headlined Densday.

    And give gentle advice

    Trunkline, the least-written of the three WordPress blogs I run and write for, all with the kind assistance of the good folks at Pressable, has a new theme. The old one dated from 2009 (here's the first post) and was starting to creak at the windows and flood in the basement. The new one needs work, as all living websites do. Check it out.

  • RainyAgainDay

    Enjoying the warm Indiana outdoors between stretches of rain

    On my way back to Bloomington from Santa Barbara on Saturday, while I sat in the first row of an Embraer short-haul vectored to Indianapolis but delayed while awaiting its pilot and parked at the far end of the strangely long jetway at O’Hare’s Gate C6, everyone in the first few rows of the plane bonded with the crew in talk about central Indiana’s monsoonal weather this month.

    All of us were returning from elsewhere, including the crew, which was based in Indianapolis. The stories people told were amazing. Most were returning to flooded streets, damaged roofs, and fallen trees. Some were headed to the flood zone of the normally shallow White River, which was about to rise 20 feet. The word derecho was in everyone’s vocabulary, for good reason.

    I was an outlier because Bloomington is a bit south of the main action, and I had also been gone for a month. So I nodded along and didn’t mention that I was returning from Santa Barbara, where it’s fire season but otherwise paradisal. I’m also writing this on our patio, where the temperature is an unusually cool 79° and the humidity is a typically high 83%. I am shaded by an overcast sky and a canopy of lush vegetation drunk on water. Hard to get real work done, but otherwise a nice welcome back.

  • Shots and Misses

    Dome or crater?

    There is a meteor impact crater in Utah’s Canyonlands National Park. It’s called Upheaval Dome, because that’s what geologists thought it was before it became clear that it wasn’t.

    When I visited the place with my teenage kids in the late ’80s, all the placards along the trail explained that the circular canyon was what remained of a giant blister of salt that heaved upward and collapsed beneath what became desert in recent eras. But it seemed obvious to me at the time that this was a crater, because it looked like one and was unlike all the other landforms around it.

    I suspect the placards on that trail now harmonize with this paragraph from the Wikipedia page for the site:

    The currently accepted theory is an interpretation of the dome as an eroded impact crater, like the much younger Meteor Crater near Winslow, Arizona. In the 1990s, a team of geologists and seismologists from NASA and the University of Nevada at Reno performed a detailed study that included seismic refraction and rock mapping. The results of this study support the meteorite theory.[2][3] In 2008, it was announced that shocked quartz was discovered in addition to the numerous impact-related features described by Kriens et al. in 1998.[4]

    Anyway, in recent decades I’ve shot that crater, and countless other scenes visible from my window seat on passenger gets, and published them in my Flickr collection of permissively licensed photos, in faith that some will show up in Wikimedia Commons, the library of images used by Wikipedia. As a result of that that work, the photo above appears atop the Wikipedia page for the crater (still called a dome). I shot it through the window of a flight from Newark to Los Angeles in 2012. The whole collection from that flight is here. The person who uploaded the photo to Wikimedia Commons is the boundlessly useful Wikipedian called Tillman, to whom we all owe thanks.

    My camera then was a 2005 Canon EOS 5D with a Canon EF28-105mm f/3.5-4.5 lens, neither of which is nearly as good as what I shoot with now. Since 2022, my main camera-lens pair has been a Sony a7iv and a Sony FE 24-105mm f/4 G OSS lens, which Ken Rockwell calls “the world’s best midrange zoom (with) spectacular optical performance as well as first-rate mechanical construction at half the price of similar lenses (while also) smaller, lighter and (with) better ergonomics than the more expensive lenses.” It’s almost perfect for shooting out plane windows, and is half the weight and bulk of my old Canon pair.

    But it’s not perfect, because I can’t shoot from every angle, especially looking down. It’s just too big and cumbersome. But now I also have an Apple iPhone 16 Pro Max, which is the ideal way to shoot around smudges, scratches, and other flaws in airplane windows—and down toward what neither the Sony nor my own eyeballs can see.

    I bring this up because I have been hoping to give the world a better shot of the Upheaval Dome than that old one of mine in Wikipedia. My latest chance came yesterday, on a flight from Santa Barbara to Chicago. After our plane crossed the San Rafael Swell and approached the Green River and Canyonlands, I could see (from my hand-held GPS, my phone, and the plane’s seat-back map) that I might get a view of the crater. It’s the round-ish canyon above and to the right of the plane’s shadow in this view of the plane’s map:

    While we flew just south of it (at 622 mph, my GPS said), my Sony and I couldn’t see it, but my iPhone could. Here’s the series I shot with it:

    I couldn’t see what I was shooting, because my phone was looking down from the top of the window, and my view of the phone’s screen was edge-on. So I just guessed at where I was aiming. Alas, while my aim wasn’t bad, the angle was too steep.

    But I still got hundreds of other nice shots on the trip, and I’ll put them up soon, annotated and licensed for easy re-use, adding to the aquifer of photos of whatever that anyone can tap for anything. For example, news stories. I mean it when I say You’re welcome.

  • Byeday

    Well, almost. Tomorrow I fly back to Indiana, where it has been stormy the whole time I've been gone, seems like.

    In a couple of months, I'll be scanning all the photos I have in dozens of three-ring albums, but keeping the photos themselves, which I want to organize chronologically behind tabbed dividers in boxes of shoebox size. Most of the photos are 5 x 7 or 4 x 6, so I need boxes that handle the larger ones. Everything I see online so far is too fancy, expensive, or flimsy. This one has the right approach, but is collapsible. I want ones I can stack up. Any ideas? [Later…] One reader suggested The Container Store. The closest thing there is this. Almost the right size. I need it to be taller than 5" to welcome tabs that protrude above the photos.

    Just saw an ad on YouTube for a usbest1.com 32 TB portable solid-state hard drive for $48: https://usbest1.com/products/16075318535720167509421170 Warning: a 1-star review on TrustPilot. Lots of other scam warnings. The closest legit drive like it is the 16 TB ProGrade, on B&H for the low low price of $4,199.99.

  • Burrsday

    A flipping iceberg.

    I subscribed to the Los Angeles Times early last year when I was writing about the challenges for journalism in covering the wildfires there. That was in my News Commons series, which I think has some brilliant and useful stuff. But it didn't go anywhere, so I wasn't sure about renewing. But I just did, for three reasons: 1) Los Angeles and the region are important to my wife and I (she's a native Angelino),  2) the paper (we get the digital version) does a good job on the whole, and 3) our remaining news journals deserve our support.

    Just got off a Zoom session on policy approaches to governing AI. One of the participants was Jeffrey Snover, who wrote [Chatbots: Unsafe at Any Speed](Chatbots: Unsafe at Any Speed) in March. The AI world changes fast, but it's still relevant. Also, that said, this.

    The $12.5 billion sale of the LA Lakers to a Kushner/Iger partnership may go slow, says here. Given how much Now feels like a bubble, I suspect that this is the most any NBA franchise will go for, maybe ever.

  • Fendsday

    Turns out the horizontally grooved landscapes of geologically soft rural California hillsides are called terracettes. Shot these at the height of California’s green season, in February of this year, driving westbound through Altamont Pass.

    Live and re-learn

    I’ve been a citizen of California for 41 years, and I learned here long ago that the narrow staircase-like parallel terraces on many ranchland hillsides were caused by cattle grazing on horizontal paths, because ungulates aren’t climbers. I have seen cattle on some of these, so the story made sense. But my knowledge of geology, which is greater than the average former Earth Sciences student, was just increased by learning that this kind of land surface is called a terracette. Which, says the link, is an enigma. Cattle maybe. Slumping soft soil maybe. Both maybe.

    Guess that means we’ll slap a tariff on the winner

    WSJU.S. and Ukrainian Forces Went Head-to-Head in an Exercise. Ukraine’s Drones Won.

    Help other doors open past a closed one

    While Netflix has been stuttering through buffering issues at our house the last few times we’ve watched it, my wife and I were reminded again how essential our friend Dave Täht was, and remains.

    As our mutual friend Eric S. Raymond put it (here, via Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols), “His work on mitigating bufferbloat improved practical TCP/IP performance tremendously, especially around video streaming and other applications requiring low latency. Without him, Netflix and similar services might still be plagued by glitches and stutters.”

    Normally we might call Dave, just for fun and advice. But he’s been gone for more than a year now. And everyone’s networked world—and much else—remains diminished by his absence. Perhaps more than ever.

    Yet we (or at least I) don’t know where or how Dave died. For closure, however one defines it, that kind of knowledge is good to have. If anyone out there has that information (no longer news, for what that’s still worth), please feel free to share it here or with me privately. Thanks.

    Profiles in Burnage

    Classmates.com sends unwanted emails to me, assuming I am an alumnus of Alliance Christian High School, about which I otherwise know nothing. I have been unsubscribed for some time. I just tried again.

    Happens

    ReasonBorder Patrol Saves America From Canadian Trucker Delivering Goods in New Mexico. First source is Canadian trucker arrested in New Mexico for alleged cabotage violations, in Freightwaves. And now I know what Cabotage means.

  • Toosday

    The skip-back, pause, and skip-forward buttons on Apple’s podcast app.

    Also, it’s not podcasting if you can’t skip ads

    Spotify is reportedly improving what we do anyway on podcast apps: hitting the 30-second skip-forward button when the host says “we’ll be back after a quick break.” (On Pivot, I might hit the +:30 button six or seven times, because that first “quick break” is up to three and a half minutes.)

    I get why some podcasters and their networks are splitting a gut about this, and I know the lengths some hosts go to make the ads as low-pressure, personal, and appealing as possible. I did that when I hosted FLOSS Weekly on the TWiT network.

    Still, that skip-forward button is a feature, not a bug. Get this straight: a podcast in its purest form is an audio or video file distributed—syndicated—by RSS, aka Really Simple Syndication.

    The way I see it, podcasting starts here:

    Anyone can publish

    recording / production

    any publishing system
    ↙ ↘
    HTML RSS + enclosure

    Below that, it looks something like this:

    RSS + enclosure

    / | \ / | \

    Any browser or podcast app

    \ | / \ | /

    Listeners

    Then, modeled the way how Jonathan Zittrain illustrated the generativity of the Internet’s base protocol —

    —in Chapter 4 of his book The Future of the Internet and How to Stop It, here is a less graphical way of showing how RSS, at the waist of the hourglass, is maximally generative for both the producers and consumers of podcasts:

    AUTHORS / PUBLISHERS / PRODUCERS
    blogs / CMSs / hosting audio / video / other media HTML / Web sites

    \ | / \ | / \ | /

    [ RSS ]
    <enclosure>
    / | \ / | \ / | \
    podcast apps / aggregators web / desktop / phone / car speakers / headphones / etc.
    LISTENERS OR VIEWERS

    Here is another virtue: nobody on the consumption side needs permissions or exclusive apps provided by the production side. That maximizes the width of populations on both the top and the bottom. (Though I hate putting people at the bottom, you do get the point.)

    This is the reason why a search for podcasts brought up only 24 results when I wrote about it in 2004 (and resurfaced here in 2016), and now brings up (Gemini tells me, sourcing its mother) 10.2 billion results, and DemandSage says there were 4.6 million podcasts going in April of this year.

    That’s why a podcast isn’t a podcast without the generative power of RSS enclosures in the middle. Nothing else is more generative or defining of what a podcast is and how it works.

    And any podcast app provider should be free to make ad-skipping a feature. Going back to more minimal graphics,

    OPEN

    Publishers > > > RSS < < < Listeners

    nobody owns it

    PLATFORM

    Producers > > > [ PLATFORM ] < < < Customers

    somebody owns it

    RSS is a requirement for interop, maximized generativity and maximized expansions of markets. A platform for captives is a system for controlling a closed market.

    If Spotify (or Apple, Google, or anybody) owned podcasting right now, podcasting would be a bunch of small markets exclusively controlled by platforms—and publishers would be on solid ground when complaining about a new ad-skipping feature. But that’s not what we have, because RSS is a market-opening protocol (just like IP is for the Net and HTTP/S is for the Web). Celebrate that and make your ads as appealing as possible, if ads are your business model.

    And face the simple fact that a large wedge of the market’s demand side wants to skip over ads. Spotify is responding to that simple fact. It’s the market at work, folks.

    Lately I’ve noticed that some publishers are pushing back on ad-skipping by making some ads skip-proof. When I’ve found that happening on a podcast, I tend to leave and not come back. Two examples are The Old Man & the Three and The Athletic NBA Daily. They both lost me. If you’re with either one, tell me when that’s stopped and I’ll be back.

    One final note: I am not a Spotify customer and don’t use their service. So I won’t be seeing the feature at issue here. I am, however, a Dish Network customer, and have been since it was Echostar, back in the last millennium. My set-top box (which dwells in a cabinet, since we don’t want to see it and TV sets now have edges, not tops) is called a “Hopper,” because it’s supposed to be able to hop forward across ads on the box’s DVR. It has never worked. Maybe commercial podcasters will get lucky, and Spotify’s new ad-skipper will fail just as well.

    Less to talk about

    Anver Kantor in NiemanLab:  We analyzed 6,400 New York Times stories to find out how comments change when you give readers more information. The subhead: “The same stories that produced sharper, more analytic conversation also produced less conversation.”

    Bonus link: Where Journalism Fails.

  • Unotherday

    A piloted paramotor glider. (The only kind, I hope.)

    Another Para Digm

    Spotted one of the above, flying up and down East Beach in Santa Barbara. If I were half my age, I’d be up there too.

    Unhuman

    Matt Hinkle: The Week AI Agents Got Hands. It begins,

    The chat window era just ended. This week, AI agents got hands — Cloudflare shipped a browser built for software instead of people, Meta dropped a coding agent into the terminal, and the Pentagon put autonomous agents to work for 9.2 million soldiers and veterans. It reminds me of 1995, when the browser went from research curiosity to the way everyone touched the internet — except this time, the humans aren’t the ones doing the browsing. The same week the agents got hands, the regulators and safety teams showed up with the rulebook.

    Zuck wrote a thing

    It’s called The Future is for Everyone and weighs in at 6538 words (about as long as Meta’s privacy policy, I’d guess. How can a guy get a perfect SAT score and still use “incredible” as an adjective? Or at all?

    Just not saying

    Says here the Nicene Creed doesn’t quote Jesus. Does it need to? Asking for a religion.

    They will also spend a lot more time with you, and answering your questions

    ReasonAI Is Already Beating Human Doctors in Medical Tests.

    Beyond wet and dry

    Bruce Li in HackernoonAI’s Water Problem Is Smaller Than You Think Pull-quote:

    The data centers rising out of the desert didn’t create the water crisis. They did something arguably more useful: they made it legible. A 200-megawatt facility asking a small county for eight million gallons on a summer afternoon is a question the 20th-century water grid cannot answer without revealing exactly how thin its margins already were — margins eroded by a century of pumping from ever-more-distant rivers, using each drop precisely once, and calling the result waste.
    What’s replacing it is a shift in scale of attention. We are moving out of an era of bulk extraction and into one of molecular management.

    You might care if you know it’s being displaced by a data center

    Trunk Line: Why KNXT/840 is shutting down.

    Holdouts

    Milwaukee (WISN and WTMJ) and Cincinnati (WLW) are two radio markets where AM stations still do well.

  • Whetherday

    Check them out

    Hackernoon today: Cyber Libertarians: Esther Dyson & The Knowledge Age. Esther is an old friend and one of my favorite people. Front burner for her right now is .agent.

    Exit signals

    Last night we were suffering through one of the most annoying movies we've ever seen (Ladies First on Netflix, which, among other offenses, wastes the many talents of Sasha Baron Cohen) when a bat flew across the screen. This indoors, far away from any open door or window. We went to bed with all lights off and our largest doors and windows open to allow the bat to leave. We'll see how that goes.

  • The Web and the New Reality

    A crude visual representation of what Jefferson called “the combustive power” of an idea, explained below.

    Until Linux Journal hired me in 1996, no publication—tech or otherwise—would employ me. Not full-time, anyway. I was too obsessed with the Internet, the Web, and what I saw as the dawn of a new reality: a digital world we would co-occupy with the natural one. So I self-published on the Web, at Searls.com, where that writing still sits, waiting for me to make all of it https rather than http. This is one of those pieces, published on December 1, 1995, six days before Bill Gates’ “Pearl Harbor” speech to his Microsoft troops. I’ve made minimal edits to add links and correct punctuation.

    Contents


    Reality 2.0

    The import of the Internet is so obvious and extreme that it actually defies valuation: witness the stock market, which values Netscape so far above that company’s real assets and earnings that its P/E ratio verges on the infinite.

    Whatever we’re driving toward, it is very different from anchoring certainties that have grounded us for generations, if not for the duration of our species. It seems we are on the cusp of a new and radically different reality. Let’s call it Reality 2.0.

    The label has a millenial quality, and a technical one as well. If Reality 2.0 is Reality 2.000, this month we’re in Reality 1.995.12.

    With only a few revisions left before Reality 2.0 arrives, we’re in a good position to start seeing what awaits. Here are just a few of the things this writer is starting to see…

    1. As more customers come into direct contact with suppliers, markets for suppliers will change from target populations to conversations.
    2. Travel, ticket, advertising and PR agencies will all find new ways to add value, or they will be subtracted from market relationships that no longer require them.
    3. Within companies, marketing communications will change from peripheral activities to core competencies.New media will flourish on the Web, and old media will learn to live with the Web and take advantage of it.
    4. Retail space will complement cyber space. Customer and technical service will change dramatically, as 800 numbers yield to URLs and hard copy documents yield to soft copy versions of the same thing… but in browsable, searchable forms.
    5. Shipping services of all kinds will bloom. So will fulfillment services. So will ticket and entertainment sales services.
    6. The web’s search engines will become the new yellow pages for the whole world. Your fingers will still do the walking, but they won’t get stained with ink. Same goes for the white pages. Also the blue ones.
    7. The scope of the first person plural will enlarge to include the whole world. “We” may mean everybody on the globe, or any coherent group that inhabits it, regardless of location. Each of us will swing from group to group like monkeys through trees.
    8. National borders will change from barricades and toll booths into speed bumps and welcome mats.
    9. The game will be over for what teacher John Taylor Gatto labels “the narcotic we call television.” Also for the industrial relic of compulsory education. Both will be as dead as the mainframe business. In other words: still trucking, but not as the anchoring norms they used to be.
    10. Big Business will become as anachronistic as Big Government, because institutional mass will lose leverage without losing inertia.Domination will fail where partnering succeeds, simply because partners with positive sums will combine to outproduce winners and losers with zero sums.
    11. Right will make might.
    12. And might will be mighty different.

    Polyopoly

    The Web is the board for a new game Phil Salin called “Polyopoly.” As Phil described it, Polyopoly is the opposite of Monopoly. The idea is not to win a fight over scarce real estate, but to create a farmer’s market for the boundless fruits of the human mind.

    It’s too bad Phil didn’t live to see the web become what he (before anyone, I believe) hoped to create with AMIX: “the first efficient marketplace for information.” The result of such a marketplace, Phil said, would be polyopoly.

    In Monopoly, what mattered were the three Ls of real estate: “location, location and location.”

    On the web, location means almost squat.

    What matters on the web are the three Cs: contentconnections and convenience. These are what make your home page a door the world beats a path to when it looks for the better mouse trap that only you sell. They give your webfront estate its real value.

    If commercial interests have their way with the Web, we can also add a fourth C: cost. But how high can costs go in a polyopolistic economy? Not very. Because polyopoly creates…

    An economy of abundance

    The goods of Polyopoly and Monopoly are as different as love and lug nuts. Information is made by minds, not factories; and it tends to make itself abundant, not scarce. Moreover, scarce information tends to be worthless information.

    Information may be bankable, but traditional banking, which secures and contains scarce commodities (or their numerical representations) does not respect the nature of information.

    Because information abhors scarcity. It loves to reproduce, to travel, to multiply. Its natural habitats are wires and airwaves and disks and CDs and forums and books and magazines and web pages and hot links and chats over cappuccinos at Starbucks. This nature lends itself to polyopoly.

    Polyopoly’s rules are hard to figure because the economy we are building with it is still new, and our vocabulary for describing it is sparse.

    This is why we march into the Information Age hobbled by industrial metaphors. The “information highway” is one example. Here we use the language of freight forwarding to describe the movement of music, love, gossip, jokes, ideas, and other communicable forms of knowledge that grow and change as they move from mind to mind.

    We can at least say that knowledge, even in its communicable forms, is not reducible to data. Nor is the stuff we call “intellectual property.” A song and a bank account do not propagate the same ways. But we are inclined to say they do (and should), because we describe both with the same industrial terms.

    All of which is why there is no more important work in this new economy than coining the new terms we use to describe it.

    The Age of Enlightenment finally arrives

    The best place to start looking for help is at the dawn of the Industrial Age. Because this was when the Age of Reason began. Nobody knew more about the polyopoly game — or played it — better than those champions of reason from whose thinking our modern republics are derived: Thomas Paine, Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin.

    As Jon Katz says in “The Age of Paine” (Wired, May 1995 ), Thomas Paine was the the “moral father of the Internet.” Paine said “my country is the world,” and sought as little compensation as possible for his work, because he wanted it to be inexpensive and widely read. Paine’s thinking still shapes the politics of the U.S., England and France, all of which he called home.

    Thomas Jefferson wrote the first rule of Polyopoly in his letter to Isaac MacPherson: “He who receives an idea from me receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.”

    He also left a live bomb for modern intellectual property law: “Inventions then cannot, in nature, be a subject of property.” The best look at the burning fuse is John Perry Barlow’s excellent essay “The Economy of Ideas,” in the March 1994 issue of Wired. (I see that Jon Katz repeats it in his paean to Paine. Hey, if someone puts it to song, who gets the rights?)

    If Paine was the moral father of the Internet, Ben Franklin’s paternity is apparent in Silicon Valley. Today he’d fit right in, inventing hot products, surfing the Web and spreading his wit and wisdom like a Johnny Cyberseed. Hell, he even has the right haircut.

    Franklin left school at 10 and was barely 15 when he ran his brother’s newspaper, writing most of its content and getting quoted all over Boston. He was a self-taught scientist and inventor while still working as a writer and publisher. He also found time to discover electricity, create the world’s first postal service, invent a heap of handy products and serve as a politician and diplomat.

    Franklin’s biggest obsession was time. He scheduled and planned constantly. He even wrote his famous epitaph when he was 22, six decades before he died. “The work shall not be lost,” it reads, “for it will (as he believed) appear once more in a new and more elegant edition, revised and edited by the author.”

    One feels the ghost of Franklin today, editing the web.

    Time to subtract the garbage

    Combine Jefferson and Franklin, and you get the two magnetic poles that tug at every polyopoly player: information that only gets more abundant, and time that only gets more scarce.

    As Alain Couder of Groupe Bull puts it, “we treat time as a constant in all these formulas — revolutions per minute, instructions per second — yet we experience time as something that constantly decreases.”

    After all, we’re born with an unknown sum of time, and we need to spend it all before we die. The notion of “saving” it is absurd. Time can only be spent.

    So: to play Polyopoly well, we need to waste as little time as possible. This is not easy in a world where the sum of information verges on the infinite.

    Which is why I think Esther Dyson might be our best polyopoly player.

    “There’s too much noise out there anyway,” she says in ‘Esther Dyson on DaveNet‘ (12/1/94). “The new wave is not value added, it’s garbage-subtracted.”

    Here’s a measure of how much garbage she subtracts from her own life: her apartment doesn’t even have a phone.

    Can she play this game, or what?

    So what’s left?

    I wouldn’t bother to ask Esther if she watches television, or listens to the radio. I wouldn’t ask my wife, either. To her, television is exactly what Fred Allen called it forty years ago: “chewing gum for the eyes.” Ours heats up only for natural disasters and San Jose Sharks games.

    Dean Landsman, a sharp media observer from the broadcast industry, tells me that John Gresham books are cutting into time that readers would otherwise spend watching television. And that’s just the beginning of a tide that will swell as every medium’s clients weigh more carefully what they do with their time.

    Which is why it won’t be long before those clients wad up their television time and stick it under their computer. “Media will eat media,” Dean says.

    The computer is looking a lot hungrier than the rest of the devices out there. Next to connected computing, television is AM radio.

    Fasten your seat belts.

    Web of the free, home of the Huns

    Think of the Industrial world — the world of Big Business and Big Government — as a modern Roman Empire.

    Now think of Bill Gates as Attilla the Hun.

    Because that’s exactly how Bill looks to the Romans who still see the web, and everything else in the world, as a monopoly board. No wonder Bill doesn’t have a senator in his pocket (as Mark Stahlman told us in ‘Off to the Slaughter House,’ (DaveNet, 3/14/94).

    Sadly for the the Romans, their empire is inhabited almost entirely by Huns, all working away on their PCs. Most of those Huns don’t have a problem with Bill. After all, Bill does a fine job of empowering his people, and they keep electing him with their checkbooks, credit cards and purchase orders.

    Which is why, when they go forth to tame the web, these tough-talking Captains of Industry and Leaders of Government look like animated mannequins in Armani Suits: clothes with no emperor. Their content is emulation. They drone about serving customers and building architectures and setting standards and being open and competing on level playing fields. But their game is still control, no matter what else they call it.

    Bill may be our emperor, but ruling Huns is not the same as ruling Romans. You have to be naked as a fetus and nearly as innocent. Because polyopoly does not reward the dark tricks that used to work for industry, government and organized crime. Those tricks worked in a world where darkness had leverage, where you could fool some of the people some of the time, and that was enough.

    But polyopoly is a positive-sum game. Its goods are not produced by huge industries that control the world, but by smart industries that enable the world’s inhabitants. Like the PC business that thrives on it, information grows up from individuals, not down from institutions. Its economy thrives on abundance rather than scarcity. Success goes to enablers, not controllers. And you don’t enable people by fooling them. Or by manipulating them. Or by muscling them.

    In fact, you don’t even play to win. As Craig Burton of The Burton Group puts it, “the goal isn’t win/win, it’s play/play.”

    This is why Bill does not “control” his Huns the way IBM controlled its Romans. Microsoft plays by winning support, where IBM won by dominating the play. Just because Microsoft now holds a controlling position does not mean that a controlling mentality got them there. What I’ve seen from IBM and Apple looks far more Monopoly-minded and controlling than anything I’ve seen from Microsoft.

    Does this mean that Bill’s manners aren’t a bit Roman at times? No. Just that the support Microsoft enjoys is a lot more voluntary on the part of its customers, users and partners. It also means that Microsoft has succeeded by playing Polyopoly extremely well. When it tries to play Monopoly instead, the Huns don’t like it. Bill doesn’t need the Feds to tell him when that happens. The Huns tell him soon enough.

    market is a conversation

    No matter how Roman Bill’s fantasies might become, he knows his position is hardly more substantial than a conversation. In fact, it IS a conversation.

    I would bet that Microsoft is engaged in more conversations, more of the time, with more customers and partners, than any other company in the world. Like or hate their work, the company connects. I submit that this, as much as anything else, accounts for its success.

    In the Industrial Age, a market was a target population. Goods rolled down a “value chain” that worked like a conveyor belt. Raw materials rolled into one end and finished products rolled out the other. Customers bought the product or didn’t, and customer feedback was limited mostly to the money it spent.

    To encourage customer spending, “messages” were “targeted” at populations, through advertising, PR and other activities. The main purpose of these one-way communications was to stimulate sales. That model is obsolete. What works best to day is what Normann & Ramirez (Harvard Business Review, June/July 1993) call a “value constellation” of relationships that include customers, partners, suppliers, resellers, consultants, contractors and all kinds of people.

    The Web is the star field within which constellations of companies, products and markets gather themselves. And what binds them together, in each case, are conversations.

    How it all adds up

    What we’re creating here is a new economy — an information economy.

    Behind the marble columns of big business and big government, this new economy stands in the lobby like a big black slab. The primates who work behind those columns don’t know what this thing is, but they do know it’s important and good to own. The problem is, they can’t own it. Nobody can. Because it defies the core value in all economies based on physical goods: scarcity.

    Scarcity ruled the stone hearts and metal souls of every zero-sum value system that ever worked — usually by producing equal quantities of gold and gore. And for dozens of millennia, we suffered with it. If Tribe A crushed Tribe B, it was too bad for Tribe B. Victors got the spoils.

    This win/lose model has been in decline for some time. Victors who used to get spoils now just get responsibilities. Cooperation and partnership are now more productive than competition and domination. Why bomb your enemy when you can get him on the phone and do business with him? Why take sides when the members of “us” and “them” constantly change?

    The hard evidence is starting to come in. A recent Wharton Impact report said, “Firms which specified their objectives as ‘beating our competitors’ or ‘gaining market share’ earned substantially lower profits over the period.” We’re reading stories about women-owned businesses doing better, on the whole, because women are better at communicating and less inclined to waste energy by playing sports and war games in their marketplaces.

    From the customer’s perspective, what we call “competition” is really a form of cooperation that produces abundant choices. Markets are created by addition and multiplication, not just by subtraction and division.

    In my old Mac IIci, I can see chips and components from at least 11 different companies and 8 different countries. Is this evidence of war among Apple’s suppliers? Do component vendors succeed by killing each other and limiting choices for their customers? Did Apple’s engineers say, “Gee, let’s help Hitachi kill Philips on this one?” Were they cheering for one “side” or another? The answer should be obvious.

    But it isn’t, for two reasons. One is that the “Dominator Model,” as anthropologist (and holocaust survivor) Riane Eisler calls it, has been around for 20,000 years, and until recently has reliably produced spoils for victors. The other is that conflict always makes great copy. To see how seductive conflict-based thinking is, try to find a hot business story that isn’t filled with sports and war metaphors. It isn’t easy.

    Bound by the language of conflict, most of us still believe that free enterprise runs on competition between “sides” driven by urges to dominate, and that the interests of those “sides” are naturally opposed.

    To get to the truth here, just ask this: which has produced more — the U.S. vs. Japan, or the U.S. + Japan? One produced World War II and a lot of bad news. The other produced countless marvels — from cars to consumer electronics — on which the whole world depends.

    Now ask this: which has produced more — Apple vs. Microsoft or Apple + Microsoft? One profited nobody but the lawyers, and the other gave us personal computing as we know it today.

    The Plus Paradigm

    What brings us to Reality 2.0 is the Plus Paradigm.

    The Plus Paradigm says that our world is a positive construction, and that the best games produce positive sums for everybody. It recognizes the power of information and the value of abundance. (Think about it: the best information may have the highest power to abound, and its value may vary as the inverse of its scarcity.)

    Over the last several years, mostly through discussions with client companies that are struggling with changes that invalidate long-held assumptions, I have built table of old (Reality 1.0) vs. new (Reality 2.0) paradigms. The difference between these two realities, one client remarked, is that the paradigm on the right is starting to work better than the paradigm on the left.

    ParadigmReality 1.0Reality 2.0
    Means to endsDominationPartnership
    Cause of progressCompetitionCollaboration
    Center of interestPersonalSocial
    Concept of systemsClosedOpen
    DynamicWin/LosePlay/Play
    RolesVictor/VictimPartner/Ally
    Primary goodsCapitalInformation
    Source of leverageMonopolyPolyopoly
    OrganizationHierarchyFlexiarchy
    RolesVictor/VictimServer/Client
    Scope of self-interestSelf/NationSelf/World
    Source of powerMightRight
    Source of valueScarcityAbundance
    Stage of growthChild (selfish)Adult (social)
    Reference valuablesMetal, MoneyLife, Time
    Purpose of boundariesProtectionLimitation

    Changes across the paradigms show up as positive “reality shifts.” The shift is from OR logic to AND logic, from Vs. to +:

    Reality 1.0Reality 2.0
    man vs natureman + nature
    Labor vs managementLabor + management
    Public vs privatePublic + private
    Men vs womenMen + women
    Us vs themUs + them
    Majority vs minorityMajority + minority
    Party vs partyParty + party
    Urban vs ruralUrban + rural
    Black vs whiteBlack + white
    Business vs govt.Business + govt.

    The Plus Paradigm comprehends the world as a positive construction, and sees that the best games produce positive sums for everybody. It recognizes the power of information and the value of abundance. (Think about it: the best information may have the highest power to abound, and its value may vary as the inverse of its scarcity.)

    For more about this whole way of thinking, see Bernie DeKoven’s ideas about “the ME/WE” at his “virtual playground.”]

    This may sound sappy, but information works like love: when you give it away, you still get to keep it. And when you give it back, it grows.

    Which has always been the case. But in Reality 2.0, it should become a lot more obvious.

  • Whetherday

    On big changes in nowheres becoming somewheres

    Audacy, by far the most stressed-out owner of too many radio stations, is killing off another big old signal: KXNT/840 in Las Vegas. I dug into that, and wrote about it on Trunkline, my neglected blog about infrastructure that will soon get a big facelift.

    C****heck them out

    Hackernoon today: Cyber Libertarians: Esther Dyson & The Knowledge Age. Esther is an old friend and one of my favorite people. Front burner for her right now is .agent.

    Exit signals

    Last night we were suffering through one of the most annoying movies we've ever seen (Ladies First on Netflix, which, among other offenses, wastes the many talents of Sasha Baron Cohen) when a bat flew across the screen. This indoors, far away from any open door or window. We went to bed with all lights off and our largest doors and windows open to allow the bat to leave. We'll see how that goes.

  • Fur eye day

    Why we need Searls Glasses (first described 16 years ago)

    Wetherspoons bans Meta Glasses in pubs amid privacy concerns

    Book now

    The next three IIWs:

    • November 3 – 5, 2026 IIWXLIII #43 Fall 2026
    • April 27 – 29, 2027 IIWXLIV #44 Spring 2027
    • October 19 – 21, 2027 IIWXLV #45 Fall 2027
    • Early bird ends in 15 days

    How are they going?

    Fighting subscription tricks and traps

    Combating hidden junk fees

    Both were issued in January by Mayor Mamdani's office in NYC.

    Events at the ends of the Internet of Stuff

    Two Amazon packages were delivered here and next door today by a Prime Guy in a U-Haul truck.

  • The Internet of Stuff

    Routers for the Internet of Stuff

    We now have an internet of stuff, at the heart of which are the distribution and fulfillment centers that have been replacing farmland and former broadcast transmitter sites near highways and airports everywhere. (The one above straddles I-65 in Whitestown, Indiana, northwest of Indianapolis.)

    In The Rise of the Stupid Network, which he wrote in 1997, David Isenberg explained that the Internet’s design was stupid in the middle and smart at the ends: you, me, and the websites and services of the world. Six years later, David Weinberger and I called the Internet a World of Ends.

    Of course, Internet routing (what happens in the middle) isn’t stupid. It’s just smart about routing.

    The same is now true for shipping. Some of its movements are easy to see when an Amazon truck arrives, when we find ourselves on a highway with more trucks than cars, or when we see containers being hauled on railroads or stacked onto cargo ships. But how goods flow through this whole system isn’t much clearer to us than how what I’m writing on this laptop appears on your screen.

    Surfacing those mechanisms is important because your smarts are far less involved in The Internet of Stuff today than in the Internet of Bits. And getting involved will give you far more agency in the marketplace than you have ever had before.

    Imagine being in charge of your privacy, your identity, the prices you’re charged, the services you’re offered, your terms of engagement—all of it—for the benefit of both you and the services you engage. This will happen, sooner or later.

    Of course, there will be a fight (just like phone and cable companies fought the Internet until they saw there was more money in it than in their legacy businesses). Today, both business and government are infected with the belief that surveillance is the best way to know people and what they’re about. This has given us an online economy far too informed by surveillance, and it’s getting worse in the offline world. Your phone apps spy on you. Your car and TV spy on you.

    In fact, you can do far more with the information that spyware collects (where you go, who you meet with, what you’ve watched and when) than the spies can—for their good as well as yours. When the market equips you with those abilities,the companies you engage can enjoy trusting, useful intelligence that flows both ways—among much else that I’ve been writing about here for the last twenty years. Plus everything else I laid out in The Intention Economy.

    So I want to explore that, in hope and faith that the fight might be over before it starts.

  • Throbsday

    A whiteboard on which notes were made about AI writing and related issues at IIW 41 in October 2025. Not the best art, but at least not generated by an AI.

    On AI wronging and writing

    I hate AI writing and can spot it in a second. It’s not just the excess of one-line paragraphs, the contrasty “not that, but this” argument constructions, the excessive use of em dashes. It’s a tone that sounds like the average of a million well-put hunks of text published by competent writers of opinion columns and advertising copy. In other words, a lot like my own writing.

    AI writing is AutoTune for the human kind.

    Also (again like my own writing), AI writing is good, but not good enough. Unless you’re Shakespeare, Vonnegut, or McPhee, writing can always be better. If you use AI to write, be sure to re-write it. Seriously.

    Like most people who research and write for a living today, I make heavy use of ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini. I am also a paying customer for two of them. While I may not like all their writing, I like their help with—

    • Research on anything
    • Any health issue that takes longer to explain than the five minutes my doctors give me once a year
    • Tech support

    For example, ChatGPT last week helped me get two laptops to connect with two difficult peripherals (a printer and a batch photo scanner) at my sister’s house, and to expose the inadequacies of the software tools involved (such as Epson’s crap scanning tools, and a sneaky feature in Apple’s Image Capture that pretends a saved (and presumably uncompressed) TIFF scan was not a wrapper on a compressed JPEG one. (The file sizes were small and identical.)

    And now it’s helping me write my next book. More on that later.